Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a case. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector

Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application) and future studies (as Scenario development) which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis).The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment's characteristic which focuses on process

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials

Tracing the Scenarios in Scenario-Based Product Design: a study to support scenario generation

Scenario-based design originates from the human-computer interaction and\ud software engineering disciplines, and continues to be adapted for product development. Product development differs from software development in the former’s more varied context of use, broader characteristics of users and more tangible solutions. The possible use of scenarios in product design is therefore broader and more challenging. Existing design methods that involve scenarios can be employed in many different stages of the product design process. However, there is no proficient overview that discusses a\ud scenario-based product design process in its full extent. The purposes of creating scenarios and the evolution of scenarios from their original design data are often not obvious, although the results from using scenarios are clearly visible. Therefore, this paper proposes to classify possible scenario uses with their purpose, characteristics and supporting design methods. The classification makes explicit different types of scenarios and their relation to one another. Furthermore, novel scenario uses can be referred or added to the classification to develop it in parallel with the scenario-based design\ud practice. Eventually, a scenario-based product design process could take inspiration for creating scenarios from the classification because it provides detailed characteristics of the scenario

What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits

Gives an overview of scenario thinking customized for a nonprofit audience. Outlines the basic phases of scenario development, and provides examples and advice for putting the process into practice. Includes an annotated bibliography of select readings

INFECTIOUS DISEASE, DEVELOPMENT, AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS

We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the time and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduced infectious diseases, even if that is exacerbated by climate change.Development, infectious disease, climate change, Sub-Saharan Africa, malaria

Scenario of the organic food market in Europe

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for strategic policy analysis that enables researchers and policymakers to support decision making, and a systemic analysis of the main determinants of a business or sector. In this study, a scenario analysis is developed regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios, and the results are discussed in comparison with the main findings from existing scenarios on the future development of the organic sector

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.scenarios, megacities, risk habitat